The Pragmatic Progressive est. 2002 by Todd Kennedy

The Problem With Wars on Activities

2012-01-12T11:36:00.000-08:00

Now that two Presidents, The Congress, and The Supreme Court via the Hamdi decision have codified a duel track system for justice for citizens and non citizens under the auspicious that the War on Terror is a legitimate War, when it no more legitimate under the Constitution as The War on Drugs, and I have heard all sides of the argument, I am very disappointed.

Proponents claim that there is no "indeterminent detention", that when the War on Terror is over then there will be releases, as if we are fighting the Germans in WWII. This is a farce. Just like a war on Bank Robbery or a War on Child Rape, it will never end.

Terror is a crime, just like assassination, even though they have political components, they are not acts of war, they are crimes. Non-State actors like Pirates or Organized Crime organizations are not International State actors, with systems of government, that can sign treaties. The treaty the US signed with Tripolitania and Algiers was not signed with the organized crime organelle, the pirates, but with the Tripolitania and Algiers. Any War must be endable and they are ended via treaty. You can't find a singular signer to speak for the opponents in the War on Drugs or The War on Terror, because they don't have one leader, because Drug Trafficking is a tactic to garner money, and terror is a tactic to garner political power, by undermining the stated virtues of the target, and by scaring the target into self-directing attacks on its own systems, and in this case Al-Qaeda has sought to prove that democratic republic can't work, because as soon as we are attacked we will attack our own source documents, our constitution and declaration of independence, make exceptions to all of our values, and we don't want to make them right. It's tactic is the same as the tactic of the option in football, do you protect the physical integrity of your people or do you protect the spirit of our laws and beliefs.

War is a legal term, and it's only because we loath these particular criminals, Al-Qaeda and what they do and did on 9/11 is why we have supposedly "declared war on terror." I hate rapists, and child rapists, and we all do, but we still deal with them as criminals. The reason that war has been labeled to this activity of finding and eliminating Al-Qaeda members and their affiliates is because when dealing with extra-national operations the legal structures are difficult and slow. You can't send the police to pick up a terrorists in the Sudan, you can send a drone and kill them with a hellfire missile. The United States doesn't send hellfire missiles via drone attack to kill child sex slave traffic-ers or people who the heads of International Drug Cartels.

This is not a war, but the US needed to create a third track that is not war or US citizen crime related in order to deal with people who want to destroy a US city with a dirty bomb if they can, because ignoring them due to legal constraints isn't an option.

The President is left with a no-win situation. He wants to deal with the 178 suspects held at Gitmo via US trial, but the Congress won't transfer them to the US because they won't provide the funding. The Supreme Court has supported everything from the War Powers Act to the current Bush Administration John Yoo rationales that dominate the Presidents allowance for capacity for dealing with Al-Qaeda, because the public supports killing "them" by any means necessary. The National Defense Authorization Act Doesn't allow for a line item veto, but it also doesn't change anything, how the President executes the law is extremely important. The President's signing statement illustrates his intent. It's sad to say but a veto of a bill that also includes funding for the troops would be twisted against the President and it wouldn't change anything with regards to what the Court and Congress has decided is possible. It all comes down to who we elect to execute the law in the current political climate. The political capital is all with the Right Wing. The President can be defeated politically or he can execute the law with greater restraint then his opponents. The Republican House isn't going to backdown, because they have the public support of the people who are paying attention. They want to claim that The President doesn't want to fight the terrorists or fund the troops. A veto would create a void in paychecks for troops, and signing the NDAA doesn't change anything with regard to what they believe the President can do, the question is what will the President do and what would other more Right Wing Presidents do in his place.

The NDAA doesn't allow for anything that the Patriot Act and the SCOTUS reviewed Bush Admin's actions didn't. Because the vast majority of Americans aren't not only politically active they don't care about semantics, and further they just want to live their lives and let someone else take care of governing, as if in a restaurant. A Democratic Republic isn't a restaurant, so long as 75% of Americans are passive when it comes to these debates allows for philosophical minorities to pervert terms like war.

People who want to blame the President for the current political climate, and think that not re-electing Barack Obama will better the current climate are dillusional. This is the fault of the passive American public. So long is not themselves who are being held without redress of grievances or eating a hellfire missile, they really don't care nor are they aware in the current buffet media environment, people can go for months without reading any hard news.

This discussion of whether you can or cannot declare war on a tactic has gone beyond manufacturing consent or not manufacturing consent, it's become that the public has checked out from the consent required in a democratic republic because they have become conditioned to live in a corporate serviced reality. It is up to the People of The United States to do their jobs and create the political capital that a progressive group of legislators and a President need to redirect this current stream.

The President still needs to deal with Al-Qaeda in order to prevent political violence directed at US citizens, and that's what he is being judged on. If more then 15% of Americans cared about philosophical semantics then we could do what we need to, create a new legal framework for dealing with an international violent criminal organization. In the meantime, replacing Obama with Romney by not voting, only ensures that GITMO gets more full and the current semantic get executed with more verbosity for political benefit and gets extended to execute and detain not just terrorists but more groups of people US citizens don't like.

The re-election of Obama means that he will have the chance to put 2-4 more justices on the court that disagree with the current semantic, and the more people that vote the more liberal the congress will be and the more arguments will be made for dealing with non-state violent actors, organized or not, as criminals and not as Nations who have invaded allies.

The GOP Race Before Iowa and Moving Forward

2012-01-02T10:32:00.000-08:00

Here are the latest polls from Iowa, it looks to be a three way tie between, Romney, Paul, and Santorum, unless Romney loses by ten points, or there is a remarkable surprise, his likelihood of winning New Hampshire big, should bury the story. Now if Romney doesn't meet expectations in New Hampshire, well then it's back to a race.

The ground game is with Ron Paul and then Mitt Romney. Paul's supporters have more intensity, but they're an inch wide and mile deep with a cap around 25% at most.

Romney has the most high level people, "known", advocates, speaking for him at the caucus precincts, and has invested in mobilization, but not to the degree Paul has, his voters will be the people who think he has the best chance to beat Obama and those who believe he is the inevitable nominee, so not a lot of love for Romney specifically.

I predicted about three weeks ago that Santorum would inherit the Gingrich/Cain/Bachmann voters who grew disillusioned with their candidates and like that Santorum has won twice in a blue state, has a foreign policy record, is less crazy rhetorically then their previous choices, has a solid family life, has been endorsed by the Evangelical Community, is the only real Catholic in the race, and in the industrial midwest, being Italian, Polish, Irish, an ethnic Catholic helps in 2011. If Santorum gets some money and pulls out a win, look out, he might be the anti-Romney for the rest of the show. Santorum is less likely then any other candidate not to say something as insane as the rest of the Republican field. I don't think most of these GOP voters knew Santorum existed, despite all the debates, because there are a lot of late deciders.

If Romney can win, and then couple that with a big win in NH and then South Carolina as Gingrich falls off, it will likely be all over with Paul and one or two others lagging around the nation from behind. If Paul wins, the press likely won't cover it much. If Santorum wins then he can get a press bump, something he's currently enjoying.

In the end, Romney has the money, the perception of inevitability, he's the "next in line" from last cycle as Huckabee isn't running, so unless something crazy happens Romney will be the nominee but because the base doesn't really like him, and that he is flip flopping waffle, who says what he thinks people want to hear, and a big phony, he will get landslided.

Obama is still the most admired American, and like Bill Clinton, when you attack him his supporters rally around him, they get defensive, they send in more money, he has achieved icon status. So the question is will Obama be able to have enough turnout to create coat tails down ticket form the Senate and House Races.... I think the more negative the GOP goes, the better off Obama will be. You are not going to beat Barack Obama in a communication battle. He's a once in a lifetime candidate, great family life, he sticks to his guns, he has an adversary in the GOP House. I liken this to Clinton 96'. Or Romney is like a Bizarro John Kerry, with all of the same negative attributes that burdened Kerry, but without any record of substantive achievement as a veteran.

The most interesting thing trend since 2010 and the landmark SCOTUS ruling, Citizen's United v. FEC, GOP sharps and money men are putting all the money they used to put into candidate or party bankrolls into soft money, unregulated, secretive Super PACs. The Democrats donors are still small donors, and are giving to the party and to Obama through official channels, reporting, and I think this will come back to bite the GOP in the buttocks. Mitt Romney has The Swift Boat guy, The Willie Horton Guy, his former campaign manager, and three other major figures from his past political campaigns running is Super Pac, and he is running around claiming that he has nothing to do with what they do. First, a Super Pac is an negative campaign organelle, they don't need to be told what to do, and second, Willard shouldn't have filled his Super PAC with so many rats and former consiglieri's if he didn't want to be associated with it.

The American voter has caught on to the Super PAC loophole, thanks in part to Stephen Colbert, and they don't like it. Where it hurts Democrats is in the down ticket races. All in all The Republicans will out spend Democrats 3.5-.6 in unregulated, foreign multinational corporate, Super PAC money and it's a major reason why we lost the House in 2010. When the GOP can flood a district that usually doesn't see a lot of money and spend five-ten times more then the Democrat, it has an effect. I think in 2012 there will be a back splash against corporations buying the Congress.

The energy behind the Tea Party has greatly diminished, as their Freshman over promised, and under-delivered, (can you name one major law this House has passed?) So even if some frustrated Liberals stay home because Obama isn't as Left Wing as they imagined, or they don't understand that we need the Congress to make laws, that will be offset by Libertarian Republicans who won't vote for Romney, or might vote for Gary Johnson, or Ron Paul if he runs as a Third Candidate, or more then likely won't vote.

I think the Democrats will re-take The House, and hold the Senate with 51-52 votes. If the GOP continues to filibuster every bill, it will only get worse for them. If the Republican dominated Supreme Court destroys Health Care Reform, Upholds Voter Mitigation Laws in the Deep South, and in short continues to be perceived as partisan, the American people will support even more progressive policies and maybe even the impeachment of Clarence Thomas due to his conflict of interests with his lobbyist wife Ginny Thomas.

All in all, this is going to be a huge year at every level of government, and as always decisions will be made by those who show up. Progress will be determined by the rate of voter turnout. If people don't want to wait in long lines, vote by mail! Get your friends and families to vote by mail!

Kennedy Football - NFL Picks Against The Spread Week 16

2011-12-23T18:38:00.000-08:00

Buffalo +3

Cincy -4

Titans -7.5

Chiefs -1.5

Miami +9.5

Giants +3

Steelers SU

Washington -6.5

Carolina -7.5

Cleveland +13

Chargers +2.5

Dallas -2

49ers -2.5

Packers -13

Atlanta +6.5

Kennedy Football - NFL Picks Against The Spread Week 15

2011-12-18T01:29:00.000-08:00

Atlanta -11.5 W

Dallas -7 W

Buffalo SU

Chicago -3.5

Titans -6.5

Green Bay -14

Bengals -6

Saints -7

Redskins +7

Texans -6.5

Oakland +1

Patriots -6.5

Jets +3

Browns +7

Chargers +2.5

Steelers SU

Kennedy Football - NFL Picks Against The Spread Week 14

2011-12-10T20:33:00.000-08:00

Cincy -3

Detroit SU

Saints -3.5

Miami SU

Jets -9

Patriots -8

Carolina +2.5

Jax SU

Baltimore -16.5

Chicago +3.5

SF -4

Green Bay -11

Chargers -7

Giants +3.5

Seattle SU

Kennedy Football - NFL Picks Against The Spread Week 13

2011-12-03T17:35:00.000-08:00

Buffalo -1.5

Chicago -7

Oakland +3

Denver +1

Indy +20

Pitt -6.5

Carolina +3.5

Washington +3

Atlanta -3

Baltimore -6.5

Green Bay -7

Dallas -4.5

St. Louis +13.5

New Orleans -9

San Diego -2.5

Kennedy Football - NFL Picks Against The Spread Week 12

2011-11-26T17:21:00.000-08:00

Atlanta -9.5

Cincy -7

Titans -3

Carolina -3

Rams SU

Buffalo +9

Houston -3.5

Bears +4.5

Patriots SU

Chargers -6

Steelers -10.5

Saints -7

Politics is War by Non-Violent Apparatus

2011-11-22T11:41:00.001-08:00

Politics is war by other means, and for the sake of understanding the battle, let's examine the factions that have caucused with the two major armies, The Democratic and Republican Parties.

The great partisan reformation of 1968 re-aligned the two major political parties into two armies of factions with sometimes, often, and perceived congruent interests and I happen to think the Democrats took the best halves of both previous polarities, The Federalist and The Democratic-Republican; the interests of the economic and social minority combined with the capacity of of execution of the Federal Government, at the cost of short term electoral power, in the historical view, adopting the position of a minority of Likely Voter's that would someday become the majority of likely voters. This was congruent with the democratic, natural rights, enlightenment value that the common man would see the inherent value of combining their power in the face of economic and coercive power.

The Democrats became more Federalist then Jefferson or Andrew Jackson, or William Jennings Bryant but also combined in a coalition of minorities. Economic, Demographic, Women, as of the 1990s LGBTs, intellectuals, all the little guys who are weak separately, but are the real population majority, and only need to see their power, and swing their "electoral swords", by full civic partiapation, even though they were constrained by longer work hours, a long history of elite manipulation to harm their senses of validity compared to a rich banker at a country club. The elite practice a Lion Tamer Act, where a small population minority uses illusions to maintain power by manufacturing the consent of the much larger and more powerful population by playing with their self-esteem, using their money and their free time to manufacture propaganda. Wedging and exploiting rifts in the population. The same tactics utilized by a Junta in a Third World Nation agains the indiginous population. Modern Day Multinational Corporate Colonists come to exploit the resources for their sole benefit, leaving behind sickness, stripped mines, and pollution.

The rifts that are key to understanding the Democrats is the environment vs. labor, Industrial Midwest Catholics vs. Other Diverse Minority Groups, Science vs. Platitudes. It's a massive coalition of at least five groups and it's a lot of moving parts.

Obama's acumen and success in 2008 was to unite all these factions, because he is both black and Irish, Working Class and Intellectual. Technocratic/Intellectual but also with the charismatic chops to speak to people's hearts. He and Hillary are very much personifications of the Democratic Party. If you wanted to make a perfect representative of the 21st Century Democrat Party, it's the President. Because he is of all the factions he can salve they rifts. But like tectonic plates, it's a never ending endeavor with historical pre-sets and the acrimony of those fighting for crumbs from the table, instead of just standing up and taking the table by the virtue of their real majority. It's a never-ending frustration that Women are 51% of the population but a real minority of voters, power holders, representatives. That a tiny minority of the US population, White, Wealthy Men, run the Country because they participate at a higher rate. Because they participate more their interests are served more, and so then the real majority doesn't participate because their interests aren't being met, a vicious cycle, a lion tamer act.

Now the GOP, took the Dixiecrats in, dropped the Northern John Dewey intellectuals, but kept the "Greed is Good" Wall Street and Corporate Lobbyist jaded core, that has a unique capacity to, with money, game the system via campaign finance, load a Supreme Court that agrees that Corporations are Individual People and that money is speech, their "benevolent to their aims" cycle. Their aims being power retention and economic enrichment.

Part of the Democratic faction are the adopted Rockefeller Republicans/Western Intellectuals and The campaign finance system being what it is, the Democrats had to fight on the battlefield that has been laid, before they could lay a new one and so via the Democratic Leadership Council and The NeoLiberals/Western Democrats, Bill Clinton/Gore, were a transition type of candidate that appealed more to the likely voters of the 1990s and 2000s. They are less labor more environment, more technology, more free trade, more intellectual, less ethical, Lawrence Summers sometimes, but also Gary Hart and Bill Clinton, Bob Kerrey. The great book from 1988ish called "The Neoliberals" is a brilliant book, it's out of print I think, and Neoliberalism was a bridge ideology that utilized market based solutions, welfare reform, trojan horses, school uniforms to appeal to the likely voters who were anti-hippie, Cold Warriors, I think the magazine "The New Republic", or the UK magazine "The Economist", as well as the former DLC's Blueprint are great displays of what they are about. They rightly get a bad rap for their Financial Industry and Free Trade Connections, but they should get some credit for trying to be intellectually innovative in public policy whereas for a long time labor was stagnant in proposing actionable ideas that would get through the Senate Finance Committee, get 60 votes, become law.

On the Right, The GOP, post-1968 took on former Right Wing Democrats, not only Dixiecrats but also The NeoConservative. Now the NeoConservatives are the vestiges of Washington State Senator Scoop Jackson, and American-Israeli PAC former Democrats, who were hard core war hawks, but also "intellectual", their magazines are "The National Review", sometimes "The Wall Street Journal", which since Murdoch bought it is more of a cross-GOP faction taste maker and Kristol's "The Weekly Standard". NeoCons are Wall Street Republicans, Country Clubbers, who are internationalists, and got us into The Iraq War. At the same time, some are moderate on Social Issues relative to the rest of the GOP, if you think of David Frum at the left end and William Kristol on the right you can see the intra-dichotomy of the NeoCons. Again they proposed actionable policy option selections that appealed to Blue Dogs, who are to the right of NeoLiberals, and on Domestic Issues, NeoLiberals, they don't want to destroy Social Security and Medicare, they aren't stupid. They know how to use the media, raise money, they are malleable when it comes to policy. They lost all of their credential with the GOP with Bush, and the Iraq War, and the Financial Meltdown, and people say well, that's great, but what replaced them wasn't more progressive or intellectual, but cro-magnon Conservatives, John Birchers, and The Neo-Libertarians, that seem to be the future of the GOP.

Amongst the NeoLibertarians, There are two kinds, the rationale who comprehend why we need a Republic and a safety net, but amongst the young right, and I talk to them a lot, you will find 20 year olds who don't find democracy worthy, they don't believe that the consent of the governed is necessary, they don't believe that the civil rights act or other communitarian progressions have validity. For example, they don't believe that the Feds have a right to say that Public Stores must serve Minorities. They are the sons and daughters of broken homes, who don't recall the history of civil rights, they are also socially libertarian, "I got mine", "Satanic Bible" is a great template for their ideology. Part of the unintended consequences of a nation moving away from organized religion and towards Athiesm is that for 20% or so the community values and pro-poor and such don't connect. These are the Ten Commandments from the Satanic Bible and first are the traditional Ten Commandments, do the later they sound familiar?

"Those with an A=Commandment, those with an S=Rule of the Earth.

A1: Thou hast no other Gods before Me.

S1. Do not give opinions or advice unless you are asked.

A2: Thou dost not make to thyself a graven image... Thou dost not bow thyself to them, nor serve them

S2. Do not tell your troubles to others unless you are sure they want to hear them.

A3: Thou dost not take up the name of Jehovah thy God for a vain thing

S3. When in another’s lair, show him respect or else do not go there.

A4: Remember the Sabbath-day to sanctify it;

S4. If a guest in your lair annoys you, treat him cruelly and without mercy.

A5: Honour thy father and thy mother

S5. Do not make sexual advances unless you are given the mating signal.

A6: Thou dost not murder.

S6. Do not take that which does not belong to you unless it is a burden to the other person and he cries out to be relieved.

A7: Thou dost not commit adultery.

S7. Acknowledge the power of magic if you have employed it successfully to obtain your desires. If you deny the power of magic after having called upon it with success, you will lose all you have obtained.

A8: Thou dost not steal.

S8. Do not complain about anything to which you need not subject yourself.

A9: Thou dost not answer against thy neighbour a false testimony.

S9. Do not harm little children.

A10: Thou dost not desire... anything which [is] thy neighbour's.

S10. Do not kill non-human animals unless you are attacked or for your food.

S11. When walking in open territory, bother no one. If someone bothers you, ask him to stop. If he does not stop, destroy him."

It's all very Dwight Schrute from "The Office" and it's what becomes of a Party that is morphing into something quite different then Eisenhower and Teddy Roosevelt, or even Reagan's GOP.

So the last major point that everyone needs to understand about political science, is that political identification/partisan ID establishment is a Paternally stressed occurrence. 90% of of people adopt the party and the faction of their father, the vast majority of single women adopt the party and faction of their husband. If you live in a nuclear family you are more likely to vote. Dad colors the coloring book of the political mind. Of course their are exceptions, and a gap between the attitudes between women and men, but there is also a sad gap between participation amongst single women. They are under more economic stress. They are often single mothers with two jobs and a college course or three, and they are less indoctrination inclined, and I'm talking percentages again. So as we have a society with less Paternal Dad's, we have a less Partisan, Campaign Mentality, structural electorate. Kids who eat Family Dinners usually end up in the Party of their Father and are Likely Voters. Women who get married and have children become three times as politically persistent almost overnight.

So the challenge for Liberals is to empower single women, kids from non-tradtional family structures to develop a political habit that mirrors their innate political values and interests. Men understand War, and Politics is War by other means.

Political Campaigns are called as such for a reason, the same fundamentals of raising an army and fighting battles apply. Politics prevent wars, because it provides an outlet for consent, redress, and action without shooting. So when people don't vote, they are conceding their territory to an occupying "army." The reason we have such a middle class gap, is low voter turnout and partisan participation by the economic losers in our society. It's like skipping court or not having a lawyer, the trial is happening no matter if you show up or not. This connection has been missed by too many who weren't taught, who, why, what, where, and how. So the republic missing key gears and pulley's doesn't function, frustration occurs, old lessons need to be retaught. The simple fact of "why partisanship?" has been lost to a generation, it's the same answer as "why army in battle?" Much better your odds with organization of winning your interests in the face of opposition.

What is simple has become complexed for the point of limiting partiapation to concentrate the power of the economic and social minority, White Male, Wealthier, people who if everyone vote could never win an election. So they use their "military" advantage, technology of media propaganda and money to win. It's like having automatic weapons vs. swords, doesn't have to be this way.

Kennedy Football - NFL Picks Against The Spread Week 11

2011-11-19T22:58:00.000-08:00

Jacksonville SU

Carolina +7

Packers -14

Buffalo +2.5

Oakland -1

Dallas -7.5

Cincy +7

Seattle +1

Arizona +9.5

Atlanta -6

Chicago -3.5

Philly +4.5

New England -14.5

Kennedy Football - NFL Picks Against The Spread Week 10

2011-11-13T03:09:00.000-08:00

New Orleans SU

Pittsburgh -3

St. Louis +2.5

Buffalo +5.5

Jacksonville -3

KC -3

Miami -3.5

Philly W

Houston -3

Carolina -3

Baltimore -6.5

Chicago -2.5

49ers -3.5

Jets -1.5

Green Bay -13.5

Kennedy Football - NFL Picks Against The Spread Week 9

2011-11-05T00:41:00.001-07:00

Buffalo -2

Dallas -11.5

Atlanta -7

KC -4

Tampa +8

49ers -3.5

Texans -11

Cincy +3

Oakland -8

NY Giants +9

St. Louis +2.5

Green Bay -5.5

Baltimore +3

Chicago +7.5

Contact

2011-11-04T18:13:00.000-07:00

e-mail: pragpro@gmail

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National Political Intelligence Estimate 11.4.11

2011-11-04T17:52:00.000-07:00

1. Whether or not Rick Perry is behind Herman Cain's sexual-harassment troubles, Paul Begala says there's nothing "despicable" about giving reporters a tip about a candidate's impropriety,

"Here's the Begala Standard: if an attack is fair, factual, and about the public record, it's not dirty. Business experience -- and, yes, one's conduct around the office or in an after-work watering hole -- is relevant. Scrutinizing it is fair. You don't attack someone's race or religion or gender or sexual orientation. You don't go after family. You don't pry into private lives, but you look at public performance in office, or in prior campaigns; you look at business and financial matters, votes and quotes (and for the presidency and vice presidency I think health is a legitimate inquiry). And there's nothing wrong with encouraging journalists to do so as well."

2. A new Montana State University Billings poll finds Rep. Denny Rehberg (R) barely ahead of Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT) in the U.S. Senate race, 36% to 35%, with 25% still undecided.

3. A new Washington Post-ABC News poll finds Herman Cain "is showing initial resilience in the face of allegations of sexual impropriety: More than half of potential Republican voters say the controversy is not serious, fewer than a quarter say it makes them less likely to support Cain, and he's running essentially evenly with Mitt Romney for the Republican presidential nomination."

Romney edges Cain nationally among Republican voters, 24% to 23%, essentially a dead heat between the two. Rick Perry trails with 13% followed by Newt Gingrich at 12%.A warning sign: Cain slips to third place among those who see the charges as serious and Republican women are significantly more likely than men to say the scandal makes them less apt to support Cain.

4. The U.S. government reports 80,000 jobs were created last month as the unemployment rate inched down to 9.0%

5. House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) acknowledged that any bipartisan agreement on debt reduction will need to include some new tax revenue, CBS News reports.

Said Boehner: "I think there is room for revenues, but I think there clearly is a limit to the amount of revenues that are available.""The comment was significant because Boehner and other Republican leaders have repeatedly insisted that tax increases are off the table, and most Republicans in the House and Senate have signed a 'taxpayer protection pledge' vowing not to raise taxes."

6. A new Gallup poll finds Republican voters are more likely to express enthusiasm about voting in next year's presidential election.

On the national level, 56% of Republican registered voters and 48% of Democratic voters are extremely or very enthusiastic about voting. In 12 key swing states, the Republican advantage in enthusiasm is 59% to 48%.

7. House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) and House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) "pushed back hard" against an upcoming 60 Minutes report "that is expected to raise questions about potential conflicts of interest between congressional leaders' personal stock holdings and their involvement in legislation that may affect those investments,"Politico reports.

8. Mitt Romney paid for automated telephone calls in Iowa accusing rival Rick Perry of contributing to illegal immigration, the AP reports.

The call is the first paid attack by Romney on Perry.

9. Bill Clinton writes in his new book, Back to Work, that last summer's political fight over raising the U.S. debt ceiling made the nation look "weak and confused" overseas, the APreports.

He also "describes the current state of the country as 'a mess' and largely blames the anti-government sentiment embodied in the tea party movement that has held sway since the 1980s. But Clinton also criticizes Obama and other Democratic lawmakers for not making a stronger case for the steps they took to stabilize the U.S. economy in 2009, like the bank and auto company bailouts and the $787 billion economic stimulus program."

10. As the supercommittee charged with reducing the deficit works on a plan that both cuts at least $1.2 trillion over ten years and can pass Congress, recent shifts by Republican leadership may signal the return of the "grand bargain" that President Obama and House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) had originally tried to negotiate.

Earlier reports indicate that Boehner has softened his line on tax increases in the final deal, while The Hill reports that Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) "has made an about-face in recent days and now favors a huge deficit-reduction deal.""At the beginning of this week, Senate GOP and Democratic sources said McConnell appeared to favor a $1.2 trillion package out of the deficit-reduction supercommittee... A $4 trillion deal has gained more popularity in the Senate GOP conference this week as lawmakers have become convinced that Obama wants the deficit-reduction supercommittee to fail."

11. Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (D-AZ) "vows to return to Congress in a new book that details months of intense therapy and her emotional battle to come to terms with what happened when a gunman opened fire in front of a Tucson grocery store," the AP reports after obtaining a copy of her memoir, called Gabby: A Story of Courage and Hope, due out later this month.

The book also describes lighter moments, "like when President George H.W. Bush and his wife, Barbara, visited Giffords at the Texas hospital. Giffords kept replying to Bush with the only word she was able to say: 'chicken.' At another point, a specialist showed her various politicians to see if she recognized people. When she saw former California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, she said: 'Messin' around. Babies.'"

12. A new Reuters/Ipsos poll finds President Obama's approval rate up a bit to 49%, with disapproval at 50%.

However, the poll also showed Obama would finish just behind Mitt Romney if the presidential election were held today, 44% to 43%, among registered voters. It was the first Reuters/Ipsos poll to show Romney ahead, although his slim lead is within the survey's margin of error and technically a dead heat.

13. "I've been as consistent as human beings can be."

-- Mitt Romney, in an editorial board meeting with the Seacoast Media Group.Here's the video:

National Political Intelligence Estimate 11.3.11

2011-11-03T18:25:00.000-07:00

1. "He hasn't handled a largely irrelevant media ambush very well. He isn't a sufficiently good enough liar to be president, I guess."

-- Rush Limbaugh, on Herman Cain facing sexual harassment allegations.

2. Herman Cain flatly denies that he made an unwanted sexual advance toward a female employee at a work event, but multiple sources tell Politico "there were urgent discussions of the woman's accusations at top levels of the National Restaurant Association within hours of when the incident was alleged to have occurred."

The new details "put the woman's account even more sharply at odds with Cain's emphatic insistence in news media interviews this week that nothing inappropriate happened between the two."The woman in question "told two people directly at the time that Cain made a sexual overture to her at one of the group's events... She was livid and lodged a verbal complaint with an NRA board member that same night."Meanwhile, the New York Times reports Cain's wife will no longer do an interview with Fox News tomorrow night as previously planned.

3. While Americans across the nation are downbeat, a special USA Today/Gallup Poll finds that "voters in a dozen key battleground states for the 2012 election are in an even deeper funk about their lives, Obama's tenure and the nation's politics."

"The underlying perils for the president are particularly pronounced in these battlegrounds, presumably because they are in parts of the country that have been hit hardest by the nation's economic troubles."States polled: Colorado, Iowa, Florida, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.

4. Despite sexual harassment allegations becoming the focus of his campaign this week, a newRasmussen survey finds Herman Cain continues to lead the GOP presidential field with 26%, followed by Mitt Romney at 23% and Newt Gingrich at 14%.

The rest of the field: Rick Perry at 8%, Ron Paul at 7%, Michele Bachmann and Jon Huntsman at 2% and Rick Santorum at just 1%.

5. Greg Sargent found this question in the recent Suffolk University poll conducted in Florida: Do you think the Republicans are intentionally stalling efforts to jumpstart the economy to insure that Barack Obama is not reelected?

By a 49% to 39% margin, Floridians said they were, while 12% were undecided.Steve Benen: "Here's a suggestion for other pollsters: given these results in one of the nation's largest states, and the fact that the charge has been made by so many prominent political voices, perhaps it's time to start putting the question to a national audience?"Update: National Journal reports Senate Republicans blocked a $60 billion infrastructure bill, making the bill the second piece of President Obama's jobs proposal to be voted down in the Senate.

6. One of the women who accused Herman Cain of sexual harassment received a payout of about $45,000 as part of her settlement, Politico reports, "significantly more than the two or three months' salary Cain initially recalled the woman obtained."

"The woman who received the approximately $45,000 is the staffer who Cain has acknowledged formally lodged a complaint about his behavior.""It was also more than the payout a second association employee received after complaining about Cain's behavior. According to the New York Times, the second woman received $35,000 -- a year's pay."Meanwhile, PJ Media claims to have details of another encounter with a staffer. Said a source: "Herman took advantage of seniority and power with a young woman. It was an abuse of power."

7. Ron Fournier: "Romney's only hope of dodging the flip-flopping label is that journalists and their readers decide to give him a pass because his position shifts are old news. But they are not old news: That fact that Romney has an odds-on chance to become president in 2013 makes doubts about his core values more relevant than ever..."

"Less than a decade later, voters will soon ask themselves whether they want somebody like Romney in Washington. Somebody whose core beliefs are so hard to pin down."

8. Mitt Romney "is biding his time and saving his campaign cash as he benefits from the missteps of his rivals," Bloomberg reports.

At this point four years ago, Romney had spent $11 million on television advertising. Today, with the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary fast approaching, Romney has yet to spend a dime on commercials.

9. Washington Post: "Mitt Romney was firm and direct with the abortion rights advocates sitting in his office nine years ago, assuring the group that if elected Massachusetts governor, he would protect the state's abortion laws. Then, as the meeting drew to a close, the businessman offered an intriguing suggestion -- that he would rise to national prominence in the Republican Party as a victor in a liberal state and could use his influence to soften the GOP's hard-line opposition to abortion. He would be a 'good voice in the party' for their cause, and his moderation on the issue would be 'widely written about.'"

10. In a Fox News interview, Rick Perry mocked those who want to build a fence along the Mexican border.

Said Perry: "I think the idea of saying, 'Listen, I'm gonna build a double fence, we're going to put alligators between it, and we're going to put lava in there, as well.' You know, one tries to outdo the other one. That's 2,000 miles. The idea of building a 2,000 mile fence costs a huge amount of money, takes a very long time."As Christian Heinze notes, it's the same joke President Obama used earlier this year -- and one that Perry himself criticized the president as someone "interested in trying out forSaturday Night Live, it seems like. He wants to play to what he considers to be the humorous side."

11. "A Texas judge faces a police investigation and judicial probe after a video showing him beating his then-16-year-old disabled daughter was posted on the Internet," CNN reports.

"The graphic video drew international outrage after it was posted by a woman who said she was the victim of the beating seven years ago and that her parents -- including her father, Aransas County, Texas, Court-At-Law Judge William Adams (R) -- were the ones seen beating and cursing at her in the video."Adams confirmed the video's authenticity to KXTV: "She's mad because I've ordered her to bring the car back, in a nutshell, but yeah that's me, I lost my temper. Her mother was there, she wasn't hurt.. it was a long time ago.. I really don't want to get into this right now because as you can see my life's been made very difficult over this child."Adams is up for re-election in three years.

12. Larry Sabato: "The lesson of history is clear, as our quick-take chart shows: From 1976 to 2008, there has been a major surprise every time either in Iowa or New Hampshire. A back-of-the-pack candidate greatly exceeds expectations. Or the frontrunner stumbles. Or the field is scrambled in some other way."

13. Herman Cain lashed out at Rick Perry, "accusing the Texas governor's campaign of orchestrating the original report about allegations of sexually inappropriate behavior,"Politico reports.

Said Cain: "We've been able to trace it back to the Perry campaign that stirred this up in order to discredit me. The fingerprints of the Rick Perry campaign are all over this, based on our sources."First Read: "But the blame game only works for a short period of time. What ultimately matters is the story -- not who leaked it. Indeed, here's what NBC News has known since Monday: Two women accused Cain of inappropriate sexual conduct, and at least one woman received a financial settlement because of it. Over the course of three days, Cain has tried to deflect blame, but hasn't been able prove all the allegations as false. He's complaining that he's being treated as if he's 'guilty until proven innocent'... The problem for him is that while he's been deflecting blame, he's also evolved his explanation so much that it's confirmed some of the charges, making his denials on all of them harder to believe."

14. The Federal Reserve "significantly reduced its forecast of economic growth through 2013, acknowledging that it had once again overestimated the nation's recovery from the 2008 financial crisis," the New York Times reports.

15. Nate Silver develops a forecasting model for the 2012 presidential election and runs the numbers:

"Average these four scenarios together and the probabilities come out to almost exactly 50-50. A month or two ago, when Perry and Romney appeared about equally likely to be the Republican nominee, it would therefore have been proper to think of the election as a toss-up.""With Perry having slumped in the polls, however, and Romney the more likely nominee, the odds tilt slightly toward Obama joining the list of one-termers. It is early, and almost no matter what, the election will be a losable one for Republicans. But Obama's position is tenuous enough that it might not be a winnable one for him."

16. The Obama administration "is exploring a shift in the military's mission in Afghanistan to an advisory role as soon as next year," the Wall Street Journal reports, "a move that would scale back U.S. combat duties ahead of their scheduled conclusion at the end of 2014."

"Officials said agreement on a formal shift to an advisory role could come as early as a North Atlantic Treaty Organization meeting in May -- in the heat of the U.S. presidential election campaign."

17. Associated Press: "A third former employee says she considered filing a workplace complaint over what she considered aggressive and unwanted behavior by Herman Cain when she worked for the presidential candidate in the 1990s. She says the behavior included a private invitation to his corporate apartment."

Meanwhile, Politico reports talk radio host Steve Deace said Cain said "awkward" and "inappropriate" things to the staff at his station.

National Political Intelligence Estimate 11.2.11

2011-11-02T16:44:00.000-07:00

1. Associated Press: "A third former employee says she considered filing a workplace complaint over what she considered aggressive and unwanted behavior by Herman Cain when she worked for the presidential candidate in the 1990s. She says the behavior included a private invitation to his corporate apartment."

Meanwhile, Politico reports talk radio host Steve Deace said Cain said "awkward" and "inappropriate" things to the staff at his station.

2. Oklahoma political consultant Chris Wilson tells KTOK that he was at a restaurant when Herman Cain sexually harassed a staffer.

Said Wilson: "It was only a matter of time because so many people were aware of what took place, so many people were aware of her situation, the fact she left -- everybody knew with the campaign that this would eventually come up."Wilson said for legal reasons, he can not discuss details of the incident. "But if she comes out and talks about it, like I said, it'll probably be the end of his campaign."

3. Jeff Bercovici found that out the hard way that Chris Matthews didn't use a ghostwriter on his new book, Jack Kennedy: Elusive Hero.

Said Matthews: "Fuck you. Where'd you get that? Is that what you think? You think I don't write my books?"He adds: "I would never let anybody write something for me. Why do you think I'm like that? It's amazing to me that you think I'm some lightweight, glib bullshit artist that has somebody do his work for him. The writing is the hard part, the composition."

4. David Bernstein finds that just a quarter of those who gave large amounts to Mitt Romney's presidential campaign four years ago have contributed again this year.

"Even Romney's earliest supporters are, for the most part, sitting on the sidelines. Just 30 percent of big donors who gave in the first three months of 2007 have given this year. Of those who gave in the very first week last time, the return rate is 40 percent -- still well under half."

5. The Washington Post's excellent Republican Primary Tracker shows that Herman Cain hasn't been to either Iowa or New Hampshire once in the last 30 days.

6. A new Rasmussen survey in South Carolina shows Herman Cain with a double-digit lead over Mitt Romney, 33% to 23%, with Newt Gingrich in third place at 15%.

It's important to note the automated phone survey was taken just last night after two days of media coverage about sexual harassment allegations against Cain.

7. Here's the schedule of the first five states in the GOP nominating process:

January 3: IowaJanuary 10: New HampshireJanuary 21: South CarolinaJanuary 31: FloridaFebruary 4: Nevada

8. Rick Perry "was stone-cold sober during his bombastic, comedic speech in New Hampshire, according to the man who invited the Texas governor to speak and spent much of the evening with him," The Hill reports.

Said Kevin Smith: "I can tell you unequivocally he wasn't drinking at the event and he hadn't been drinking prior to the event. I was sitting with him, and I found him to be very engaging with all of the people he was talking with, he was very articulate."In fact, Smith said that Perry drank "only water" at the event and that his speech was well-received.

9. Mitt Romney holds a wide lead over his GOP rivals in donations received from the 939 "Pioneers" and "Rangers" who raised at least $100,000 each for George W. Bush's two presidential campaigns, the Houston Chronicle reports.

"Romney has received 148 donations totaling $351,250 from Bush's top money people, compared to Perry's 87 contributions worth $213,000 and former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty's 47 donations for $102,867... Herman Cain, who is competing with Romney for first place in recent polling, has not received support from former Bush fundraisers, the study found."

10. Sen. Ben Nelson (D-NE) tells the Lincoln Journal Star that he'll make a decision about running for re-election "sometime during the Christmas holiday season."

"Nelson has his campaign leadership in place, has blanketed the state with a series of TV ads paid for by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, has raised campaign funds and banked more than $3 million for a re-election bid, but he still has not yet left the starting gate, pushed the go button, pulled the trigger."Said Nelson: "I'm not trying to drag this out. There is no theater involved in this. It's more that I just don't want to be a candidate any longer than I need to be or (it's more difficult) to do the job I'm elected to do."

11. The Hill reviews disgraced lobbyist Jack Abramoff's new book, Capitol Punishment, which says Ralph Reed made a "hard sell" to secure Abramoff's support for George W. Bush's 2000 presidential bid. According to the book, Reed said that "Bush personally told him that his presidency would make all of us very rich."

Asked by The Hill about the anecdote, Reed said: "I don't recall ever saying that to Jack."

12. Herman Cain is hurting himself with his repeated high-profile appearances to discuss sexual harassment allegations made against him because, as The Fix notes, "his side of the story keeps changing. And that means that every time he goes on television, he is creating more questions than he's answering."

Said former RNC communication director Brian Jones: "Ultimately, crisis communications is about survival. Repeatedly re-litigating the story and injecting new facts only fuels the story while also casting doubts on the truthfulness of the pushback.""In other words: Get your story straight and stick to it. And that's the opposite of what Cain did in the first 48 hours of this controversy."

13. As the Republican presidential primary weaves its way towards the first caucuses and primaries, The Hill notes that in "the past few weeks, White House and campaign officials have all but declared Romney the nominee... blasting the former Massachusetts governor in conference calls and background briefings."

"And Romney is the second target. The first phase of Obama's 'we can't wait' political strategy was his fall offensive against Congress. By going on the road and going on offense, using the thin shield of an ill-fated jobs act, Obama has helped drive down congressional approval. And while it hasn't yielded any huge gains for Obama's own dismal approval rating, this isn't about making people like Obama. It's about making people hate Congress. And soon it will be about making people hate Romney. Or at least fear him."Metaphor of the campaign: "The summer days of compromise are gone, replaced by the autumn winds of political combat. The winter will be cold, brutal and long as the president's team takes its fight from Congress to Romney. Obama can't wait."

14. "Nine local TV anchors got the full Cinderella treatment from the White House, on a day that one likened to 'a whirlwind,'" according to the Los Angeles Times.

"Yes, they interviewed the president in the Cabinet Room on Tuesday. But they also got lunch with the president's top political advisor, David Plouffe; an on-camera tour of the White House main floor in the company of a curator; a visit to First Lady Michelle Obama's garden on the South Lawn; an interview with a White House aide from their home market... Press SecretaryJay Carney skipped over some of the national press to make sure the out-of-town guests got a question at the daily briefing."

15. A new Washington Post-ABC News poll finds 48% of Americans rate the Democratic Party favorably, marking the party's first sub-50% read in polling since 1984. At the same time, public views of the Republican Party continue to be even more negative with just 40% viewing the party favorably.

Independent voters are broadly critical of the two sides: 55% have unfavorable views of the Democrats and Republicans alike.Interestingly, while 74% of independent voters favor the idea of an independent candidate for president, majorities of both Republicans (57%) and Democrats (53%) also back the concept, at least in principle.

16. A new Quinnipiac poll finds President Obama's job approval rating is split with 47% approving and 49% disapproving -- a significant improvement from last month when he held a 41% to 55% approval.

Voters also are divided 47% to 49% on whether he deserves reelection, compared to last month, when a majority said he did not deserve reelection.National Journal: "Still, there are indications that the poll could just be a blip. There is little change in the crosstabs by party from last month, when Romney led Obama by four points. Independents broke for Romney by five points in each survey, yet, overall, there was a nine-point swing. It simply appears that this month's sample is significantly more Democratic."

17. A new Quinnipiac poll finds Herman Cain leading the Republican presidential field nationally with 30%, followed by Mitt Romney with 23%, Newt Gingrich with 10% and Rick Perry with 8%. No other candidate tops 7 percent.

Cain leads a head-to-head race with Romney among Republican voters, 47% to 39%, "coming close to the critical 50% mark, even though more Republicans think Romney has the knowledge and experience to be president."

18. One of Herman Cain's accusers received $35,000 -- a full year's salary -- in severance pay after an encounter with Cain "made her uncomfortable working there, three people with direct knowledge of the payment," the New York Times reports.

19. "What did I say? Excuse me. Excuse me! What part of no don't some people understand?"

-- Herman Cain, in a NBC News video, brushing off reporters who wanted to ask about the sexual harassment allegations made against him.

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

National Political Intelligence Estimate 11.1.11

2011-11-01T17:48:00.000-07:00

1. A lawyer for one of the women who accused Herman Cain of sexual harassment wants to tell her side of the story but is barred by a confidentiality agreement, the Washington Postreports.

Said lawyer Joel Bennett: "It is just frustrating that Herman Cain is going around bad-mouthing the two complainants, and my client is blocked by a confidentiality agreement."Meanwhile, the New York Times reports Cain declined to release the woman from the agreement.Said Cain: "I just found out about this today. I can't give you a definitive answer on that until we consult with our attorneys."

2. A new Suffolk University poll in Florida finds President Obama struggling in the low 40% range in head-to-head matchups with Mitt Romney and Herman Cain, he rockets to 50% when Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is added to the Democratic ticket.

The Republican presidential ticket is also helped when adding Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) as the vice presidential candidate, but not nearly as much as the Democratic ticket is enhanced by adding Clinton.Said pollster David Paleologos: "In Florida, Marco Rubio is superman, but Hillary Clinton is the kryptonite."

3. A new Suffolk University poll in Florida finds Mitt Romney just ahead of Herman Cain among Republican presidential primary voters, 25% to 24%, with Newt Gingrich at 11%, Rick Perry at 9%, and Ron Paul at 5%.

All other candidates are at 2% or less and 20% of registered Republicans are still undecided.

4. A new Suffolk University poll in Florida finds Mitt Romney just ahead of Herman Cain among Republican presidential primary voters, 25% to 24%, with Newt Gingrich at 11%, Rick Perry at 9%, and Ron Paul at 5%.

All other candidates are at 2% or less and 20% of registered Republicans are still undecided.

5. A new Public Policy Polling survey finds Sen. Olympia Snowe's (R-ME) prospects for winning the GOP nomination for another term are looking the best they have in two years.

Two years ago, just 31% of Maine Republicans stood with Snowe, while 59% wanted to replace her with someone more conservative. Now, 46% of primary voters in the state stand with Snowe compared to only 47% who want to replace her with someone more conservative.Key finding: Just 21% of Republican primary voters identify as Tea Partiers. While they want to replace Snowe with someone more conservative by an 80% to 16% margin, they're drowned out by the rest of the GOP electorate supporting Snowe 58% to 36%.

6. Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-MO) made clear that she "will be asking President Barack Obama to come to Missouri within the next few months to campaign for her, and help her raise money for her 2012 bid for re-election," according to the St. Louis Beacon.

Said McCaskill, "I don't always agree with the president. He'll be the first to tell you that. But I support the president."The Hotline: "Vulnerable Democrats in comparable positions should take notice. Opponents will tie McCaskill to Obama no matter what she does... If you are going to be tied to an unpopular president, you may as well let him use his standing to help you raise some money along the way."

7. Members of Congress had a collective net worth of more than $2 billion in 2010, a nearly 25% increase over the 2008 total, Roll Call reports.

Nearly 90% of that increase is concentrated in the 50 richest lawmakers.

8. A Public Policy Polling survey done over the weekend found Herman Cain leading Newt Gingrich, 30% to 22%, with Mitt Romney at 19%, Rick Perry at 10% and all other candidates below 5% support.

"The North Carolina results are particularly worth noting because it's the first state we've polled twice since Cain began his surge in late September. Cain was at 27% on the first poll and expanded his support to 30% this past weekend. If anything those numbers suggest Cain was continuing to build momentum before the Politico revelations on Sunday."Most interesting: "If Cain's candidacy does implode in the coming weeks our numbers suggest the candidate poised to benefit the most is Newt Gingrich."

9. Herman Cain said that his wife, Gloria Cain, will soon give an "exclusive" interview, theWashington Post reports.

"It is by now a cliche -- the political wife standing by her political husband as a kind of prop and validator as questions of some impropriety swirl about. What is unknown is whether her appearance will quell the speculation and allow Cain to return to his unconventional, take-it-straight-to-the-people campaign."The New York Times reports the interview with be on Friday night on Fox News.

10. The presidential campaigns of Mitt Romney, Rick Perry, Michele Bachmann, Ron Paul, Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum and Jon Hunstman all tell The Hill they had nothing to do with the Herman Cain sexual harassment story.

11. The Passage of Power, the fourth of Robert A. Caro's Lyndon Johnson books is coming out in May, the AP reports.

And a fifth volume will be written for what was supposed to be a three-, then four-part series.

12. Herman Cain told an interviewer today there had been "a couple of other things" in the sexual harassment complaint filed against him in the 1990s, though he claimed not to remember the specifics, Politico reports.

Said Cain: "I don't even remember. They were so ridiculous, I don't remember what they are."When pressed, he added: "The reason I forgot them is because they were ridiculous. I dismissed them out of my mind."

13. The Economist isn't impressed with Rick Perry's new Iowa ad in which he discounts his failings as a communicator by saying, "I'm a doer, not a talker."

"Not to be overly pedantic, but talking is a kind of doing. Indeed, talking is primarily how one gets things done in politics. How does Mr Perry convey that he is a doer, and not a talker? By talking. What else is there? Interpretative dance? A presidential candidate unable to best a foe in a public exchange, or to communicate his position on a complex issue when the heat is on, is about as useful as a one-legged fullback. There's a good reason Mr Perry's embarrassing debate performances have left him trailing Herman Cain by 15 points in the polls not long after he entered the race with a comfortable lead: a candidate this feckless on his feet would be eaten alive by Barack Obama in the general-election debates."

14. Can Herman Cain survive the allegations he sexually harassed as least two women and hisshifting explanation of what happened?

First Read: "It all depends if there's another allegation or a new piece of information that contradicts his current story. If there is, that would be a knockout blow. Indeed, conservative commentators largely gave Cain a free pass yesterday. Rush Limbaugh said, 'Look at how quickly what is known as the 'mainstream media' goes for the ugliest racial stereotypes they can to attack a black conservative.' And Laura Ingraham, who clerked for Clarence Thomas, said, 'Doesn't all this sound familiar? A black man who thinks for himself, who ends up surprising everyone...' (One exception, however, was Karl Rove, demonstrating an establishment-vs.-base divide here.) But if another shoe drops, he most likely won't get another free pass from them."The Note: "Cain's dissembling represents a marked departure from his straight-talking persona on the campaign trail, but we still don't know whether it spells disaster for his campaign or if it's just a bump in the road. Will either of the two women who received monetary settlements speak publicly? Are there any other shoes to drop? If the answer to both of those questions is 'no', it's hard to see this story get much more traction -- even with Cains' inconsistencies."

15. Occupy Wall Street activists "plan to amass in Iowa one week before the Iowa caucuses -- up to the day they're held on Jan. 3," CNN reports.

"If the protests occur, it appears they would be unprecedented for the Iowa caucus season. They could also spark clashes between Occupy Wall Street activists and scores of conservatives."

16. "I enjoy flowers like everybody else."

-- Herman Cain, in an interview on Fox News, on whether he has a "roaming eye."

17. The latest University of Texas/Texas Tribune poll finds that an overwhelming number of Texans attribute the state's economic success to "long-standing policies and natural resources," at 65%, while just 21% believe it was a result of Gov. Rick Perry's (R) leadership.

"The poll results appear to show Texas voters don't buy Perry's claim that his policies are responsible for the state's economy and that he can do the same for the country. The findings, however, buttress his claim that protecting those state policies against efforts to raise taxes and increase regulation helped the state weather the recession."

18. Politico reports that the Commission on Presidential Debates has set the presidential debate schedule for next year, pitting President Obama against his eventual Republican opponent in Colorado, New York, and Florida.

The schedule: October 3 at the University of Denver, October 16 at Hofstra University in Hempstead, New York, and October 22 at Lynn University in Boca Raton, Florida. There will also be a single vice presidential debate at Centre College in Danville, Kentucky on October 11.

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National Political Intelligence Estimate 10.31.11

2011-10-31T17:19:00.000-07:00

1. The latest Economist/YouGov survey shows Herman Cain leading the Republican presidential field with 28%, followed by Mitt Romney at 24%, Ron Paul at 9%, Rick Perry at 9%, Newt Gingrich at 7%. All other candidates are below 5%.

Meanwhile, in general election match ups President Obama leads Romney, 48% to 45%, tops Cain, 48% to 40%, and crushes Perry 48% to 38%.The AP notes Cain's rise in the polls "appears to be no fluke. Unlike some other Republican presidential contenders who have flamed out after auditioning as the conservative antidote to Mitt Romney, Cain is still riding high atop public opinion surveys."

2. "That's what I find absolutely bizarre: Republicans moralizing about deficits. That's like an arsonist moralizing about fire safety. These guys have zero credibility."

-- Vice President Joe Biden, quoted by the Orlando Sentinel, speaking to Florida Democrats.

3. A new Des Moines Register Iowa poll shows Herman Cain and Mitt Romney leading the GOP presidential race.

Cain edges Romney, 23% to 22%, with Ron Paul at 12%, Michele Bachmann at 8%, Newt Gingrich at 7%, Rick Perry at 7%, Rick Santorum at 5% and Jon Huntsman at 1%.Cain has surged 13 points since the first Iowa Poll of the caucus cycle, conducted in late June. His rise has come despite spending little time in Iowa recently, campaigning just once in the state since the August 13 Iowa straw poll.The Iowa caucuses are scheduled for January 3.

4. George Will: "A straddle is not a political philosophy; it is what you do when you do not have one... Romney, supposedly the Republican most electable next November, is a recidivist reviser of his principles who is not only becoming less electable; he might damage GOP chances of capturing the Senate. Republican successes down the ticket will depend on the energies of the Tea Party and other conservatives, who will be deflated by a nominee whose blurry profile in caution communicates only calculated trimming."

"Republicans may have found their Michael Dukakis, a technocratic Massachusetts governor who takes his bearings from 'data'... Has conservatism come so far, surmounting so many obstacles, to settle, at a moment of economic crisis, for THIS?"

5. Rick Perry plans to participate in at least five more debates, "dismissing speculation that the Texas governor's lackluster performances so far would lead him to skip future Republican debates," the AP reports.

He will attend all of the events scheduled in November as well as an early December debate."The decision comes after questions over whether Perry would bypass some debates to concentrate on other types of campaigning. He has always conceded he is not a strong debater, and has often avoided the sparring matches in his past campaigns."

6. "Our team wants someone authentic, creative, fresh, bold and likeable. And we don't have much tolerance for too many facts or too much information. In politics, a bumper sticker always beats an essay."

-- Republican strategist Ed Rogers, writing in the Washington Post, on the psychology of GOP activists.

7. A reader sends a must-watch video of Rick Perry giving a speech Friday night in New Hampshire which shows he's got, um, a very different style.

Here's the video:

8. "During Herman Cain's tenure as the head of the National Restaurant Association in the 1990s, at least two female employees complained to colleagues and senior association officials about inappropriate behavior by Cain, ultimately leaving their jobs at the trade group,"Politico reports.

"The women complained of sexually suggestive behavior by Cain that made them angry and uncomfortable, the sources said, and they signed agreements with the restaurant group that gave them financial payouts to leave the association. The agreements also included language that bars the women from talking about their departures."Byron York: "Cain is likely to face questions about the matter on Monday. He is scheduled to appear at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington in the morning to discuss his 9-9-9 tax plan, and then speak -- and take questions -- at the National Press Club at lunch."

9. Ed Rollins told ABC News that former client Michele Bachmann has "run out of money and ideas" and can no longer expect to win in Iowa.

Said Rollins: "She's still saying the same things she said in the first the debate. There's no substance. She says, 'I'm going to repeal Obamacare.' But she's been saying that from Day 1. I told her: That's your Tea Party speech, now you have to say what you're going to do next."Ben Smith: "Rarely has the arc of a campaign been so clearly foretold (another win for the pundits!) as Michele Bachmann's, about whom the conventional wisdom this summer was, roughly, Ames victory, abrupt collapse, public recriminations from Ed Rollins."

10. President Obama has passed his physical -- and is "tobacco free" to boot, USA Todayreports.

"Obama, who has been criticized for smoking, has told interviewers recently that he has kicked the habit... The two-page report concludes that Obama is physically active, eats a healthy diet, stays at a healthy weight, and on occasion drinks alcohol in moderation."

11. A Newsweek investigation found about five dozen of the most fiscally conservative Republicans "trying to gobble up the very largesse they publicly disown, in the time-honored, budget-busting tradition of bringing home the bacon for local constituents."

12. Health Care Reform: What It Is, Why It's Necessary, How It Works by Jonathan Gruber.

WBUR interviews the author: "I think Mitt Romney is the hero of this story. But I want to make clear that the way he's portrayed in this book has nothing to do with his presidential campaign. Mitt Romney is the single person most responsible for health care reform in this country: Without his leadership we don't get reform in Massachusetts, and without Massachusetts reform we don't get national reform."

13. In an interview with Fox News, Republican presidential candidate Herman Cain deniedaccusations that he had sexually harassed two female employees when he was head of the National Restaurant Association, reports Politico.

Said Cain, "It is totally baseless and totally false. Never have I ever committed any kind of sexual harassment."Cain also claimed that he "wasn't even aware" of any settlement between the restaurant association and the women involved.Meanwhile, NBC News has confirmed at least one of Cain's accusers received a cash settlement.

14. The Wall Street Journal reports that Mitt Romney has picked up more of President George W. Bush's top fundraisers than any other candidate in the Republican presidential race, and has even "won over twice as many of the Bush backers as Texas Gov. Rick Perry," who served as Bush's Lieutenant Governor in Texas.

"Winning the support of Mr. Bush's network would be a coup given that the former president's fund-raising operation was among the best in recent Republican campaigns. He invented the modern system of relying on a group of 'bundlers' who could generate huge sums by soliciting donations from colleagues, friends and associates... Of the roughly 550 people who raised at least $100,000 for Mr. Bush's 2004 reelection campaign, about 400 have yet to make a campaign donation to any of the Republicans running for president."

15. Howard Fineman highlights a story about the 1960 Kennedy-Nixon debates: "According to new interviews, the Kennedy team insisted that makeup be prohibited. Richard Nixon followed the rules, with disastrous results. JFK did not. His staff secretly applied powder and told reporters that his ruddy glow was merely a natural tan. After Nixon was seen perspiring badly in the first debate, his staff tried secretly to lower the thermostat in the NBC studios for the second debate. The Kennedy team found out and just as secretly turned the dial back up."

16. Herman Cain's survival as a GOP frontrunner depends on how he handles the mob of reporters interested in his response to the story that he sexually harassed at least two women.

First Read: "Three questions immediately come to mind: One, can his campaign handle this story? (The most sophisticated of political operatives struggle to handle and get in front of scandal stories; Cain's less experienced team, so far, appears to be struggling big time.) Two, assuming the campaign can't fix this, does Cain become the latest conservative darling (after Michele Bachmann and Rick Perry) to sink in the polls? And three, what happens if he does? Could that benefit Perry or someone else?"Ben Smith: "I'm not sure to whose benefit the new information about Cain's record goes -- but that beneficiary will obviously be a Republican. I'm inclined, in fact, to think Newt Gingrich has the best shot of the next boomlet, and both Mitt Romney -- eager to have anyone but Rick Perry in that slot -- and Rick Perry, who's still re-assembling his campaign and image, might have been glad to leave Cain there a while."

17. "Rick Perry is going to go down in history for the all-time train wreck beginning. Because private polling in Iowa 40 days ago had him leading."

-- GOP strategist Mike Murphy, on Meet the Press, commenting on the latest Iowa Poll that has Perry in 6th place.

18. Top aides to Herman Cain "ran a private Wisconsin-based corporation that helped the GOP presidential candidate get his fledgling campaign off the ground by originally footing the bill for tens of thousands of dollars in expenses for such items as iPads, chartered flights and travel to Iowa and Las Vegas -- something that might breach federal tax and campaign law," theMilwaukee Journal-Sentinel reports.

19. Republicans in states like Florida and Ohio are making it more challenging to vote or to register others, the Los Angeles Times reports.It's part of a national trend, "as election law has become a fierce partisan battleground. In states where Republicans have taken majority control, they have tightened rules for registering new voters, reduced the time for casting ballots and required voters to show photo identification at the polls. The new restrictions were usually adopted on party-line votes and signed by Republican governors.""Democrats have denounced new restrictions as 'voter suppression' laws intended to deter voting by students, the elderly, the poor, the disabled and minorities."

20. One more sign of how far Texas Gov. Rick Perry has fallen since he announced his presidential bid: A new University of Texas/Texas Tribune poll shows Herman Cain edging Perry in his home state among Republican voters, 27% to 26%.

Rep. Ron Paul was next with 12%, followed by Mitt Romney at 9% and Newt Gingrich at 8%. The other Republican primary candidates -- Michele Bachmann, Jon Huntsman, Gary Johnson and Rick Santorum -- each got 2% or less.In general election match ups, President Obama loses to each of the top four GOP candidates.

21. Michael Calderone: "The Romney campaign, running this cycle from a frontrunner position, has scaled back on the candidate's accessibility from four years ago and rarely allows for such unguarded moments on the campaign trail. While Romney has taken the stage for primetime debates and has done a few cable news hits, he's avoided lengthy interviews with magazines to which he spoke in 2008 -- such as Time and Newsweek -- and hasn't appeared on any of the Sunday morning chat shows, a traditional pit stop for any presidential contender."

22.

Kennedy Football - NFL Picks Against The Spread Week 8

2011-10-29T21:56:00.000-07:00

59.6% ATS Last Four Weeks

Indy +8.5

Saints -13.5

NY Giants -10

Carolina -3.5

Ravens -13

Jacksonville +9.5

Buffalo -6

Detroit -3

New England -3

49ers -8.5

Seattle +3

Philly -3.5

Chiefs +3.5

National Political Intelligence Estimate 10.27.11

2011-10-27T16:50:00.000-07:00

1. If you want to see next month's "modified Lincoln-Douglas debate" between Herman Cain and Newt Gingrich -- not carried on television -- it will cost you, the Wall Street Journalreports.

"Bleacher seating at the Gingrich/Cain debate, hosted by the Texas Tea Party Patriots at the Woodlands Resort in Houston, costs a cool $200. The next step up, the $500 ticket, gets you 'prime seating' and a ticket to the 'Nite Cap party after the Debate,' ... And for the really high rollers, $1,000 will get you 'the best seating in the house for the debate' and 'a professional picture taken with the candidates.'"There's no word if the candidates are getting paid for their appearance, but Dave Weigel, who first broke the story, reports proceeds will go to the Tea Party Patriots group.

2. The Daily Beast reports Newsweek's Michele Bachmann cover has become a Halloween costume.

3. The latest Gallup tracking poll finds President Obama's job approval rating has improved to 43% -- up from his low point of 38% two weeks ago.

The increase could be tied to two recent major foreign policy events -- the death of former Libyan President Moammar Gadhafi and Obama's announcement that virtually all U.S. troops would be withdrawn from Iraq by the end of the year.

4. The latest Rasmussen survey in New Hampshire finds Mitt Romney running away from the GOP presidential field with 41%, followed by Herman Cain at 17%, Ron Paul at 11%, Newt Gingrich at 8%, Jon Huntsman at 7% and everyone else under 5%.

5. Sky News reports that Italian lawmakers "came to blows in the Chamber of Deputies after an opposition leader made comments about Northern League leader Umberto Bossi's wife on television."

"Gianfranco Fini, a former ally of Italian premier Silvio Berlusconi, mentioned on a talk show that Mrs Bossi had taken early retirement from a teaching job when she was 39. The retirement age in Italy has been a key issue holding up a programme implementing emergency growth measures."

6. Washington Post: "Republicans who are eager to repair the party's battered image among Hispanic voters and unseat President Obama next year have long promoted a single-barrel solution to their two-pronged problem: putting Sen. Marco Rubio on the national ticket."

"But Rubio's role in recent controversies, including a dispute with the country's biggest Spanish-language television network and new revelations that he had mischaracterized his family's immigrant story, shows that any GOP bet on his national appeal could be risky. Democrats had already questioned whether a Cuban American who has voiced conservative views on immigration and opposed the historic Supreme Court nomination of Sonia Sotomayor, the first Latina justice, could appeal to a national Hispanic electorate of which Cubans are just a tiny fraction but have special immigration status. And Rubio's support in Florida among non-Cuban Hispanics has been far less pronounced than among his fellow Cubans."

7. James Carville told George Stephanopoulos that Mitt Romney is almost certain to win the Republican presidential nomination becauase Rick Perry and Herman Cain are not serious candidates.

Said Carville: "I don't think so. I mean Rick Perry's completely blown himself up. There's zero chance that Herman Cain's going to be the nominee.""The only thing that I can see is that Republicans just don't like him enough that he can't accumulate half the delegates as he goes through this. That these candidates just keep going and becoming such an irritant that he can't close the deal but that's almost impossible to imagine."Here's the video:

8. John Avlon: "This might finally be the election cycle when viral video gets some respect while breaking the chokehold that broadcast-TV advertising buys have on campaign budgets. The roughly 45 percent of total campaign funds that end up being spent on TV ads is no longer commensurate to their actual power or reach. Instead, it's starting to look like a racket, reflecting a political-consultant playbook first fashioned in the 1980s that's resistant to change."

9. The Wall Street Journal reports the U.S. economy grew at an inflation-adjusted annual rate of 2.5% last quarter, the strongest performance in a year. The report could allay at least for now concerns the the economy is slipping back into recession.

10. The New York Times has a fascinating look at Herman Cain's unorthodox and often mismanaged campaign.

"All presidential candidates make mistakes -- including experienced candidates like Mitt Romney -- and campaigns are chaotic and unruly by nature... But interviews with Mr. Cain's former staff members, volunteers and supporters give a glimpse of a candidate who appeared to show ambivalence toward basic campaign management, which led to problems in hiring, scheduling, fund-raising and messaging."Especially odd: "Several former workers interviewed for this article said they were directed by the campaign not to speak with reporters. (Two said they had signed nondisclosure agreements, a rare demand within political campaigns, and they had been reminded, they said, by the campaign not to speak with the news media.)"

11. European leaders have reached a "three-pronged" agreement to solve the region's massive debt crisis, the BBC reports.

"They said banks holding Greek debt accepted a 50% loss, the eurozone bailout fund will be boosted and banks will have to raise more capital."New York Times: "After all the buildup to this summit meeting, failure here would have been a disaster. While the plan to require banks to raise new capital was generally approved without difficulty -- banks will be forced to raise about $150 billion to protect themselves against losses on loans to shaky countries like Greece and Portugal -- the negotiations over the Greek debt were difficult."

12. Nate Silver on Herman Cain's presidential candidacy:

"Has there ever been a candidate with such strong polling but such weak fundamentals? Almost certainly not, at least not at this relatively advanced stage of the race... [I]t is quite arrogant to say that the man leading in the polls two months before Iowa has no chance, especially given that there is a long history in politics and other fields of experts being overconfident when they make predictions."

13. Maggie Haberman reports that Rick Perry, who has not proven himself to be the most compelling performer in debates, may not attend any more Republican presidential primary debates after the upcoming debate in Michigan.

Said Perry spokesman Mark Miner, "I think all the campaigns are expressing frustration right now. We said we would do Michigan but the primaries are around the corner and you have to use your time accordingly."National Journal: "There appears to be consensus in the Rick Perry campaign that skipping some future debates may be the best strategy for the Texas governor."

14. The latest CBS News/New York Times poll asked respondents who the Obama administration and Republicans in Congress supported the most, the rich, middle class, and the poor, or all of them equally.

The Fix: "While people were pretty evenly split on whether the administration favors the middle class, the rich or the poor, they were all but unanimous about which class the Republicans favor; 69 percent said Republicans in Congress favor the rich, while just 9 percent said the middle class and 2 percent said the poor. That's a significant perception problem for the GOP, and the Occupy Wall Street protesters -- for whatever bad press they have created and will create due to the actions of some participants -- are rallying support against the very class that the GOP is thought to favor."

15. A new Fox News poll shows Herman Cain leading the GOP presidential race nationally with 24%, followed by Mitt Romney at 20%, Newt Gingrich at 12% and Rick Perry at 10%.

All other candidates are in the single digits.Key findings: "Cain is particularly popular among Republican primary voters who identify as being a part of the Tea Party: he captures 32% to Romney's 8% among this group. Cain also has a wide 15 percentage-point advantage over both Romney and Gingrich among white evangelicals."

Some thoughts and graphs on inequality and income By Ezra Klein

2011-10-26T18:47:00.000-07:00

From The Washington Post and Ezra Klein. A great article, please do share.
"Posted at 11:24 AM ET, 01/ 3/2011

Some thoughts -- and graphs -- on inequality and income

By Ezra Klein

I've been spending some time thinking about income inequality for a piece I'm writing. As part of it, I made this graph comparing trends in inequality -- as measured by the share of pre-tax income that goes to the top 1 percent -- and median household income (adjusted for inflation). This is, I think, the mental picture a lot of people have in their heads when they think about inequality:

The story this graph seems to tell goes something like this: From about 1947 to 1970, times are good for the average American and not as good for the average rich American. That's the part of the story that gets a lot of attention: It suggests that perhaps there's a connection between falling inequality and rising wages. But the timing of the next few inflection points doesn't really work for that theory: In the 1970s, median household income begins stagnating. But it's not until the mid-1980s -- and really beginning in 1987 -- that the income share of the top 1 percent begins skyrocketing. Then in the ’90s, inequality rises sharply, but so too do median household incomes. And then in the aughts, inequality rises, but median household incomes don't. There's not a consistent relationship between the two variables.

But that graph, which has informed my thinking on inequality, is, in some crucial ways, misleading: It compares changes in a percentage of something (the top 1 percent's share of income) to changes in the value of something. Here's a graph that's apples-to-apples: It tracks changes in the dollar value of median household incomes against changes in the dollar value of incomes for the top 1 percent (both data sets are adjusted for inflation). I've set the level both incomes were at in 1947 to be the baseline:

This graph tells a different story: Income inequality falls between the 1940s and 1970s because median household incomes are doing well, not because the incomes of the rich are doing poorly. As you can see, their incomes are growing too -- just not as fast.

In this graph, too, the story changes in the 1970s -- but it changes for both groups. Whatever hits median incomes in the 1970s also hits the incomes of the rich -- and harder. Where median incomes begin to stagnate, incomes of the rich begin to fall. But then, in about 1985, the incomes of the rich take off -- and never really slow down again. Stock market crashes create some volatility, but they don't keep incomes of the wealthy down for long. Whatever is driving the gains for the rich, however, isn't doing much for median household income, which never really speeds up again.

A few thoughts:

1) Income inequality and median income stagnation don't track:There's not much evidence here for the view that the top 1% are taking income gains that would've gone to the rest of us, or at least for the view that that's the primary driver of median income stagnation. Median household income begins stagnating in the early-1970s. The run-up in inequality really begins in the late-1980s. Further complicating the picture, income inequality shoots up in the 90s, and so too does median household income.

2) What happened in 1987? From about 1952 to about 1986, the top 1 percent's share of income fluctuates between 7 percent and 10 percent. But between 1987 and 1988, it jumps sharply -- rising from 10 percent to 13 percent in a single year -- and never comes back down. So what happened in 1987? There's a massive stock market crash that year, but it's not a crash that's considered to have had profound or lasting impacts on the real economy. Most explanations peg it as a market-driven, rather than economy-driven, event. And yet something that year does seem to have profoundly changed income equality in this country, and in a lasting way. But what?

3) What are the rich good for, exactly? There's almost no relationship between the fortunes of the richest Americans and average Americans. From the 40s to the 70s, the top 1 percent doesn't make big gains, but the average American does. In the 90s, they both do. In the aughts, the rich do great and median households go nowhere. There's a model of the economy in which the rich create the growth that sustains everyone else -- this is the model in which low tax rates on the wealthy are a crucial component of long-term economic growth -- but I see no evidence in either graph that that's how the economy actually works.

4) The story at the top appears to be financialization. There's evidence -- both on these graphs and elsewhere -- that the real driver of gains among the very rich is money from the financial sector. But I've never seen a really persuasive explanation for what exactly happened there. The time period roughly corresponds to deregulation, but it's also possible that deregulation roughly corresponds to the time period when the financial industry started making more money and throwing it around in Washington. So what's the best explanation of why the finance sector began playing such a different role in America's income distribution starting in the 90s?

5) The story in the middle is ... what? Tim Noah did a yeoman's job trying to answer that question in this series. One thing he didn't address is that, unlike the rise in inequality, median income stagnation has not been unique to the United States. Canada has suffered from it, for instance. That makes me skeptical of overly U.S.-centric explanations. One question that's never been answered to my satisfaction is why thelink between productivity and income growth broke:

I'd love to hear other people weigh in on any or all of these.

By Ezra Klein | January 3, 2011; 11:24 AM ET
Categories: Economy, Inequality Save & Share:

National Political Intelligence Estimate 10.26.11

2011-10-26T16:28:00.000-07:00

1. Rep. John Olver (D-MA), who has been the subject of retirement speculation for years, announced that he will not seek re-election, Roll Call reports.

"Olver's decision eases the burden on Massachusetts legislators drawing a new Congressional map. The Bay State lost a seat in reapportionment, and the state redistricting committee was faced with the difficult decision of which Democratic Member to draw out. It now appears likely that the two westernmost districts in the state, the 1st and 2nd, will be combined."

2. A new Public Policy Polling survey in Wisconsin finds Gov. Scott Walker's (R) approval rate improved to 47%, making the prospect of recalling him much tougher. In May, just 40% approved of him.

Voters are still split on the possible recall with 48% supporting it and 49% opposed The biggest obstacle: finding a Democrat strong enough to unseat him.

3. A new Public Policy Polling survey in Nevada finds Rep. Shelley Berkley (D-NV) has moved into a tie with Sen. Dean Heller (R-NV) in the U.S. Senate race at 45% each.

Berkley trailed by as much as 13 points earlier this year.

4. New CNN/Time/Opinion Research polls find Mitt Romney continues to be the overwhelming front-runner in New Hampshire, leads in Florida, and is statistically tied for the top spot with Herman Cain in Iowa and South Carolina.

Iowa: Romney leads Cain 24 to 21%, followed by Paul at 12%, Perry at 10%, Gingrich at 10%, and Bachmann at 6%.New Hampshire: Romney leads Cain 40 to 13%, followed by Paul at 12%, Huntsman at 6%, Gingrich at 5%, and Perry at 4%.South Carolina: Romney leads Cain 25 to 23%, followed by Paul at 12%, Perry at 11%, Gingrich at 8%, and Bachmann at 4%,Florida: Romney leads Cain 30 to 18%, followed Gingrich at 9%, Perry at 9%, Paul at 6% and Bachmann at 4%.

5. A new Rocky Mountain Poll in Arizona finds Herman Cain edging Mitt Romney in the GOP presidential race, 25% to 24%, with Rick Perry way back at 10% and all other candidates in the single digits.

Arizona could be a key state in the battle for the Republican nomination, as the state has moved up the date of its primary to February 28. In general election match ups, Obama leads Romney by 45 to 40%, tops Perry by 44% to 38% and beats Cain by 45% to 38%.

6. In an interview with Bay News 9 in Florida, Rick Perry clarified that he has "no doubt" that President Obama was born in the United States, saying that he was only kidding around when he voiced doubts earlier this week.

Here's the video:

8. Dave Weigel: "There's a popular going theory in the punditocracy now: Cain's just proving that every outsider candidate will get a bubble. Today, Cain, tomorrow Santorum. I don't buy it. The Cain/Gingrich un-campaigns are succeeding because they understand how the media works. Just look at how they've spent the last decade... In the last 10 years, Cain and Gingrich have learned to make bold pronouncements and endorse wild gimmicks... They run their policy shops the way a contrarian editor might run his magazine. It works."

9. "We're down to paid staffers and blood relatives."

-- Sen. John McCain (R-AZ), commenting on a recent poll showing the congressional approval rate at just 9%.

10. Here's the video clip:

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11. After declining to comment on Ohio's collective-bargaining law, Mitt Romney today said he apologizes for the confusion, adding that he supports Ohio Gov. John Kasich "110%", according to NBC News.Said Romney: "I'm sorry if I created any confusion in that regard. I fully support Gov. Kasich's, I think it's called Question 2, in Ohio. Fully support that."

12. SCOTUS Blog: "The Supreme Court will take its first look at the challenges to the new federal health care law at its Conference on Thursday, November 10. Five of the six pending petitions (the sixth is not ready yet) were distributed to the Justices' chambers on Wednesday, for consideration at that private session. Although a grant of review is not assured, that is highly likely, since all sides agree that the Court should take on the controversy, and the constitutionality of a key provision of the new law has been decided differently by federal appeals courts."

13. Matt Taibbi says Rick Perry's track record as Texas governor reveals his only real passion: selling off government to the highest bidder.

"In an era when there's exponentially more money in politics than we've ever seen before, Perry is the candidate who is exponentially more willing than we've ever seen before to whore himself out for that money. Even scarier, the religious community around which he has chosen to pull his human chameleon act features some of the most extreme end-is-nigh nutcases in America, the last people you want influencing the man with the nuclear football. Perry is a human price tag -- Being There meets Left Behind. And sometimes there's nothing more dangerous than nothing at all."

14. Rick Hasen looks at the rise of Super PACs -- and Sen. Mike Lee's (R-UT) attempt to createhis own -- and notes they're just a Trojan horse for the re-emergence of soft money in our political system.

"The result of all this is that federal campaign finance law is unraveling even faster than pessimists expected after Citizens United."

15. Rob Cornilles (R), a candidate in the special election to fill former Rep. David Wu's (D-OR) vacant House seat, has a new ad that features him jogging through Oregon's 1st congressional district.

But as James Allen notes, Cornilles takes a detour halfway through the ad and is actually running in the wrong district.Here's the ad:

16. "I never think ahead."

-- Ohio Gov. John Kasich (R), quoted by the Columbus Dispatch, when asked if he has "a back-up plan" if his attempt to strip collective bargaining rights from government workers is voted down next month.

17.

19. Despite being accused of stifling job creation by imposing new rules on businesses,Bloomberg notes that President Obama's White House "has approved fewer regulations than his predecessor George W. Bush at this same point in their tenures, and the estimated costs of those rules haven't reached the annual peak set in fiscal 1992 under Bush's father."

20. Sen. Mike Lee (R-UT) has asked the FEC "to allow him to accept unlimited funds from corporations and the wealthy in a political action committee that he would use to support like-minded conservatives running for Congress," the Salt Lake Tribune reports.

"In essence, the freshman senator from Utah wants to be the first sitting officeholder to directly run his own super PAC.""The law now prohibits candidates or officeholders from soliciting donations that go beyond federal limits, either for themselves or for another political entity."

21. A new CBO report finds the top 1% of earners more than doubled their share of the nation's income over the last three decades.

New York Times: "In its report, the budget office found that from 1979 to 2007, average inflation-adjusted after-tax income grew by 275 percent for the 1 percent of the population with the highest income. For others in the top 20 percent of the population, average real after-tax household income grew by 65 percent.""By contrast, the budget office said, for the poorest fifth of the population, average real after-tax household income rose 18 percent. And for the three-fifths of people in the middle of the income scale, the growth in such household income was just under 40 percent."

22. The recent flurry of attention to Herman Cain's "9-9-9" tax reform plan has also made it increasingly unpopular according to the latest Washington Post-ABC News poll.

The "9-9-9" plan's favorability ratings are underwater across the board, trailing 35% to 61% among Democrats, 35% to 58% among Independents, and 41% to 50% among Republicans.Key question: Will the lack of public support for Herman Cain's signature proposal begin to hurt Cain with voters, or does his candidacy have enough staying power independent of his "9-9-9" plan?

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National Political Intelligence Estimate 10.25.11

2011-10-25T13:59:00.000-07:00

1. San Francisco Mayor Ed Lee has a music video supporting his campaign for a full term -- featuring MC Hammer and many other celebrities.

Here's the video:

2. The latest Democracy Corps poll finds President Obama deadlocked with Mitt Romney in a possible general election face off at 45% each.

Despite Obama's obvious vulnerabilities, Romney has been unable to make himself a more attractive candidate.Key findings: "Romney is stuck at 45% on the vote -- virtually unchanged all year. He is not popular, and his personal ratings are not improving. His mean thermometer rating is at just 43.1 degrees, the lowest since we began tracking. As the only Republican who seems to have any staying power, for now, voters are left with this choice. As a result, more people are volunteering they will vote for a third party candidate for President."

3. A new Democracy Corps survey finds President Obama's approval rate down five points since August 40% with 53% saying they disapprove of the way he is handling his job.

Key finding: "The biggest drop-off has come among his broad base -- 79% of Democrats now say they approve of the President's job performance, the lowest in our tracking. The biggest decline has come from young people and minorities. Among minority voters, 63% now say they approve of the president's job performance, the lowest in our tracking. More significant is the drop-off among young people, who voted for the president by huge margins in 2008. Less than 40% of young people (under age 30) now say they approve of the President's performance, 54% disapprove. This is a significant drop since August when a majority of young voters (52%) approved of the way the president was handling his job, 42% disapproved. That is a net 26-point decline in two months."

4. A new Public Policy Polling survey in Nevada finds Mitt Romney barely edging Herman Cain among likely Republican caucus goers, 29% to 28%.

The rest of the field: Newt Gingrich at 15%, Ron Paul at 7%, Rick Perry at 6%, Michele Bachmann at 3%, and Rick Santorum and Jon Huntsman each at 2%.One potential problem for Cain is that his supporters are not strongly committed: just 41% say that they'll definitely vote for him, compared to 59% of Romney's supporters.Also note that a Magellan Strategies poll released yesterday found Romney with a double-digit lead.

5. With Liberty and Justice for Some by Glenn Greenwald.

"From the nation's beginnings, the law was to be the great equalizer in American life, the guarantor of a common set of rules for all. But over the past four decades, the principle of equality before the law has been effectively abolished. Instead, a two-tiered system of justice ensures that the country's political and financial class is virtually immune from prosecution, licensed to act without restraint, while the politically powerless are imprisoned with greater ease and in greater numbers than in any other country in the world."

6. Rick Perry's presidential campaign called on Mitt Romney "to make public his tax returns today, something Romney has steadily refused to do," Ben Smith reports.

"Romney has come under fire in the past for failing to release his tax returns in a series of political campaigns, beginning with his 1994 race against Senator Ted Kennedy, when he called on Kennedy to release his own returns. Neither man did, and Romney has since revealed only the required outlines of complex holdings valued at more than $190 million."On CNBC earlier today, Perry raised the stakes and called Romney a "fat cat."Think Progress speculates that Romney is worried about becoming a poster child for the "Buffett Rule."

7. Charlie Cook: "Although plenty of political and economic diagnostic indicators are signaling danger for President Obama, this election season still doesn't have a dominant direction. During the 2006, 2008, and 2010 cycles, the question was how many seats would the victorious party pick up, not which one the political tides would benefit most. But so far for 2012, the weather vanes are just spinning."

8. First Read: "The best -- and most meaningful -- statewide race of 2011 wasn't in West Virginia (where Democrats narrowly won the gubernatorial contest). Or in Louisiana (where Gov. Bobby Jindal cruised to re-election). And it won't be in Kentucky (where Democrats are poised for a blowout gubernatorial win). Or in Mississippi (where Republicans are expected to hold the governor's mansion). Rather, the 2011 race with the biggest political implications is taking place here in the Buckeye State, where voters two weeks from today will decide the fate of Gov. John Kasich's (R) law curbing collective-bargaining rights for public-sector workers."

"It will test, once again, organized labor's strength in the Midwest (after its mixed results in Wisconsin). It will gauge Kasich's popularity (or unpopularity). It will serve as a trial run of sorts for next year's presidential contest in this traditional battleground state. And it's the same fight we've seen across the country -- about how governments balance their budgets and about the role of the government worker."

9. "Perry won't just go negative. He'll make your television bleed and beg for mercy."

-- GOP media strategist Alex Castellanos, quoted by Politico, on the coming assault on Mitt Romney.

10. Rick Perry used a Wall Street Journal op-ed to outline his flat tax plan, to be formally unveiled in a speech later today.

The "Cut, Balance and Grow" plan provides for a 20% flat tax and makes personal Social Security accounts optional. In contrast to Herman Cain's 9-9-9 plan, the Perry plan keeps home mortgage interest and charitable deductions for households earning below $500,000.The Washington Post answers five questions about the Perry plan.

11. A new New York Times/CBS News poll finds Herman Cain leading Mitt Romney nationally among Republicans, 25% to 21%, with Newt Gingrich at 10%, Ron Paul at 8% and Rick Perry at 6%.

However, of those likely Republican primary voters who expressed a choice in the election matchup, 80% said they had not fully made up their mind.

12. "It's a good issue to keep alive. It's fun to poke at him."

-- Rick Perry, in an interview on CNBC, on why he questioned President Obama's birth certificate over the weekend.

13. Herman Cain's unconventional presidential campaign released a new unconventional adwith his chief of staff taking a drag from a cigarette while speaking.

The ad is a subtle reminder that Cain used to lead a group fighting anti-smoking rules.The Atlantic: "Making a bold statement against anti-smoking regulations would seem general election suicide but also the sort of thing that might help Cain in Tea Party circles, where voters frequently complain about what they see as intrusive government regulations that prevent them from living the lifestyles they want to."Here's the ad:

14. A new Quinnipiac poll in Ohio shows 57% of voters favor repealing a recent law that limits collective bargaining rights for public employees, while just 32% said it should be kept.

The referendum is on the November 8 ballot.

Notes pollster Peter Brown: "With two weeks until Election Day, the opponents of SB 5 have strong reason to be optimistic. The opponents had seen their 24-point margin in July close over the summer and early autumn. As we enter the home stretch, however, they have once again taken a commanding lead. Except for Republicans, just about every demographic group favors repealing the law."

15. British Prime Minister David Cameron "faced an all-out rebellion from members of his own party over whether Britain should even be part of the European Union," the New York Times reports.

"Defying orders from the government, legislator after legislator from Mr. Cameron's Conservatives rose in Parliament to fulminate against his European policy, saying he had done nothing to stop the union from siphoning money, sovereignty and authority from Britain.""At issue was a motion calling for a referendum on whether Britain should withdraw from or renegotiate its relationship with the European Union. The government opposed the motion, saying that it had to devote attention to sorting out its own economic crisis right now and that, in any case, leaving the European Union was not a reasonable option."

16. A new Pew Research/Washington Post poll finds 39% of Americans support the Occupy Wall Street movement while 35% say they oppose it. By contrast, more say they oppose the Tea Party movement than support it, 44% vs. 32%.

Interestingly, 10% say they support both, while 14% say they oppose both.

17. Swampland: "A series of interviews with key party figures may lend further credence to this charge. Well-connected GOP operatives in New Hampshire, Florida and South Carolina say they see little or no evidence of Cain's campaign in those key early primary states, and some are even unable to name who is leading his localized efforts just a little more than two months before voters are expected to cast the first ballots."