Tuesday, October 20, 2009

From Nate Silver, Why The (Impure) Public Option is (Probably) Gaining Momentum

Whatever we can get is a win that we can build on, but we need a public option as a foundation.

Progressive's work is paying off, from the election of Obama in states like North Carolina and Indiana to the national election and the legislative agenda, progressive strategy is working to frame the debate, set the agenda, and (cross our fingers) get the best policy we can out of the Congress considering it's designed to subdue and delete progress. The GOP still tells themselves that they are supported and popular no matter of the evidence to the contrary. There is a mass exodus from the GOP to non-party affiliation which inevitable weakens both the individual's leverage capacity. There is power in numbers. Organic coalitions form of the commonly interested because that's an honest expression of where the people's interests meet with the urgency of the issues. The poor, minorities and middle class and even majority minorities like women are finally getting much more representation then before. By listening to what the people want and understanding what they need along with better execution and use of technology we are getting back on track as a democracy that can function for, by and of the majority of people and not just a small well connected wealthy minority. For the first time in along time around 55% of the people and the President are on the same page. Now we must retain that faith through execution, competency, and proving that the people can effectively self-govern in our democratic republic and this form of government is not evil but necessary for the common good and perpetuation of this nations 200 year hot streak.


breakdown,

1. The tireless, and occasionally tiresome, advocacy on behalf of liberal bloggers and interest groups for the public option. Whatever you think of their tactics -- I haven't always agreed with them -- the sheer amount of focus and energy expended on their behalf has been very important, keeping the issue alive in the public debate.

2. The fact that the CBO thinks it will save money.

3. The seeming inevitability of health care reform, which neuters the voices of those who aren't opposed to the public option
per se so much as the entire project of health care reform.

4. The fact that the locus of power has shifted from the Gang of Six -- Bingaman/Conrad/Baucus/Snowe/Grassley/Enzi to the Group of Six -- Pelosi/Dodd/Obama/Reid/Baucus/Snowe.

5. The "innovation" of the opt-in/opt-out family of compromises, which have more liberal "street cred" than co-ops or triggers and are potentially also much more politically advantageous.

6. The fading from memory of the tea party protests and the "government takeover" meme.

7. Polls in myriad swing states and swing districts showing the public option is reasonably popular in these regions.

8. Constituent letters and e-mails.

9. The insurance industry's "senior moment": forgetting that this isn't 1993 and that the shelf life of a misleading study would be measured in hours (rather than days or weeks) and would damage its credibility in the process.

10. The Washington Post's somewhat bizarre decision to make its poll showing support for the public option its lede in yesterday's paper, even though public opinion has been fairly steady on the issue for months.


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