The trend in opinion on health care reform has been a bit tricky of late. After a long and substantial rise of opposition, and an equally long but less sizable decline in support, we came to August, the month for the strange in politics. This year was stranger than most with loud and angry town halls, fearful politicians reluctant to meet constituents, cable news of gun toting demonstrators, an extended presidential vacation and the death of an icon. And what did all the rancor produce? Apparently, the sound and fury signified, surprisingly, a flattening of the trends in opinion. Opposition slowed its rise (not accelerated), and support halted its fall and by the second week of August, began a modest rise. And that before the president spoke to the joint session of Congress.
The picture is complex in the details, but essentially unanimous in the major points. Let me lay the details out a bit.
The chart above shows all the trend lines we might estimate for our health care questions, using 65 different levels of sensitivity for the smoothing. At one end, we smooth little and get a very (overly) sensitive fit. At the opposite end we smooth a lot and get a quite insensitive trend. In between is our standard estimator. The overlapping lines above make clear that the big picture is a common pattern over all 65 different degrees of sensitivity: A rise, then a flattening of opposition, and a smaller fall then a rise in support. Off to the right, you can see "bar codes" showing all the different possible current trend estimates from each of the 65 different levels of smoothing. The range of possible current trends is small, but there is a little overlap indicating some estimates may show support slightly ahead of opposition, though most show the opposite.
First, "Fits for 65 degrees of smoothing", is my new catch phrase.
Second, Charlie Cook is a cry baby, Henny-Penny who still doesn't "get" that Independents may grouse at how we accomplish their policy goals, but they love it when we're effective and competent.
Third, at the end of the day you either deliver policy option selection that the American people find benefits their lives or you don't and you get kicked out of office. None of the details of how you did or didn't accomplish it will be recalled. The people will ask themselves if they are better off at election time or not, and the best way to make sure that they find that they are better off, is to enact policy that we know will accomplish easing the burden by those who work hard and play by the rules, trust our work, don't negotiate away policy items like the inclusion of competition in our health system due to our Small State Large State dichotomy, respect the majority of voters that sent us up to follow through on our platform by not placating the losers who can't be satiated with anything but our own self-inflicted disaster. The rest will take care of it's self. Don't think you can deliver an ineffective, whittled away health bill and the GOP will suddenly love us, Independents will find us moderate, and the base will stand by us. Stand and deliver for the American people, have something every member is proud to run with on their record and enjoy the benefits of electoral popularity for decades, but this is the hard part, following through on the courage of our convictions even if it means some members may have to work harder to retain their seats. All purple district members are going to have to fight hard for their seats, no matter what.
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