Tuesday, March 18, 2008

Prediction time:

Obama will go into the convention with an 135-150 delegate lead. Messy time, I hope that the same ratio of voters in even increased numbers show up for the general election as did the primary and caucus process. John McCain is receiving such a gift right now.

Obama has a 70% chance to win the Democratic nomination and a 55% to 60% chance of becoming president and only mildly shrinking due to demographic shifts in the electorate exemplified by the primary calender turnout. The big question is this: Can both or either Clinton or Obama retain and grow their turnout numbers in all the states. States like Pennsylvania and Michigan seem to be in play, shockingly, for McCain. At the same time Virginia and Missouri are in play for the Democratic candidate.

We should be fine, but by the time November rolls around I'm afraid that Clinton and FOX-News are going to grind on Obama like a pencil in a sharpner, and they'll hit every racial note they can get away with. Obama had a preacher that is no more crazy then John McCain's theological associates ,(Hagee and Rod Parsley.)