South Carolina to Clintons: "No you didn't"

Actually, that's bullshit. A vote for Barack Obama in a Democratic Primary isn't necessarily a vote against Clinton or Edwards. Democratic primary voters just believe that Barack has the best chance to win by turning the page on the old anti-Democrat arguments, much in the same way Arnold did for California Republicans. Of course in Arnold's case this was mostly due to issue obfuscation, Barack is reflecting back what his voter's want to see and there happens to be much more accuracy in Barack's selling points.


The current dynamics of the presidential race are as such. The right most wing of the GOP is pushing hard for Romney because they loathe John McCain. Example 1, example 2.

The Democratic race between Barack and Hillary is still up for grabs, South Carolina and Iowa have demographically unique turnouts in their respective primary and caucus. Hillary has the Feb. 5 edge, unless Bill really wants to run this shit into the ground for her.

The kicker is this, I think McCain can beat Obama or Clinton. I don't think Romney can beat either Clinton or Obama. So the question is this. Will the GOP be too stupid to nominate John McCain because of his positions, anti-torture, pro-campaign finance reform, and pro-immigration reform, and risk losing all for a Bush redux in Romney?

There is a third dynamic. Democratic voters feel Obama is more electable in general in South Carolina and Iowa, and I think that reality tends to follow that which people feel. It could be that regardless of who the GOP nominates they get beat by Obama due to a mounting presence of inevitability.