The more I look at the fundamentals of the electoral map, just the way things are now demographically and ideologically spaced, the more I'm almost certain that we will see a 2000 redux of a split electoral and popular vote, regardless of the issues, regardless of the chops of the Democratic nominee. You'll always have 40% from each end of the political spectrum as an unswayable constant. Bush's 40% is much, much stronger...I don't believe that they would ever consider not going to the polls. The Democrat's 40% is mostly anti-Bush at this point, and not pro-anyone, that may change, but it's just as likely that a large portion of these folks will stay home and not vote.

If we look at job's lost, around 2.5 million, 2 million of these are blue-collar jobs. The city of Wichita, Kansas has a population of a few hundred thousand, 100,000 are now unemployed in Wichita. The question is will these unemployed blue collar voters, vote their religion, their firearm, their pro-Iraq position, or will they vote their jobs, their questioning of Bush's integrity, will they feel bamboozled? Most likely, they will not vote, sadly, 50% of those who can register are not registered, 50% of those actually vote, so we are talking about an electorate of 25%. This electorate has been effected by the economic downturn to a lesser extent, they are older so they do care about prescription drugs, they are more religious, and they are more supportive of the President's agenda as a whole.

Unless we see a rapid trend away from apathy, which is not likely as a nasty campaign and a feeling of hopelessness and party sameness is still likely to be felt by the 80% who don't vote, those who do vote will be split, with the Dem winning by larger margins in Vermont and Massachusetts, and Bush winning smaller margins in Ohio and Florida.

The central question for the Democrats is this: how to get their potential voters or simply non-voters energized as much as Bush's wealthier and evangelical Christian base is. The Democrats can’t even depend on the AFL-CIO anymore; the NRA has siphoned much of this support away. The gray panthers, let’s face it, get turned around with clever ads.

So, yeah, you can't just give the people something to vote against. If everything was the same and Gore was President, I think just by virtue of the current electoral demographics, Gore would be in a world of shit. In other words, this is a GOP game board. If the Democrats win it will be due to a virtuoso performance, a major turnout spike or near depression. I for one think another 9/11 helps Bush, the rally around the leader effect is so strong. Oh, plus Nader will be back, you can count on it. It’s a helluva roe to ho. The crazy part is, with this economy it shouldn’t be. If the Democrats can’t win this one, they can’t win anyone. I’m talking about the death of the party, the opposition is all fractured, and under funded, ‘liberal’ is a cuss word. Welcome to your uni-party. I can’t say we didn’t help let it happen, thanks DLC.